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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."